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Nifty hits 25000 - Nifty 3rd Fastest 1000 Points Rally

Kapil Malhotra
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Hi Everyone 😊

Nifty scaled Mt 25k today finally after teasing us for the whole week! the 24k to 25k journey took just 24 trading sessions, the third-fastest 1000-point rally.

Markets again failed to hold on to their morning gains, with the nifty and Sensex ending with minor gains. Midcaps (-0.9%) and small caps (-1%) didn't have a great day though. The advance-decline ratio was in favor of the bear (3:2).

Most sectors ended in the red. Energy (+2%) was the top winner, while FMCG (+0.2%) saw minor gains. Real estate (-1.7%) and PSU banks (-1%) witnessed the most selling. 

Coal India gained +3% after its Q1 beat all estimates. Maruti had a solid Q1 show too. 

Ceigall India's Rs 1253 cr IPO kicked off today! 

Adani Energy Solutions, KRBL, and Sonata Software all saw big movement today. Check out their charts below to find out why. 

Infosys was in focus after receiving a massive Rs 32403 cr tax notice from the GST authorities! the firm says there is no evasion and that it does not need to pay tax on the services mentioned in the notice.

Restaurant Brands Asia was up 3% after 1.5 cr shares (2.8% equity) changed hands in a block deal, the buyers and sellers were not immediately known. 

Kotak Mahindra Bank was in focus after a report said it got RBI 'fit and proper' approval to acquire IDBI bank. Fairfax and Emirates NBD are two other suitors. 

PCBL was up +7% after promotor Sanjiv Goenka said its profit could jump 5x in the next few years. 

RESULT REACTION: Aster dm healthcare +6% gained after its topline jumped +24% YoY. Adani Enterprises was up +2% after it zoomed +116% YoY. 

Quartly Result Roundup 

Maruti Suzuki +1% Q1 result beat street estimate! Volume was up only +5% YoY, clocking its slowest sales growth in five quarters. Despite that, Maruti reported doubled-digit topline growth due to higher SUV sales, which grew +29% YoY. SUVs now make up 31% of Maruti's sales vs 25% last year. Finally, cheaper raw material costs, favorable forex moves & strict cost control measures boosted margins and the bottom line.

BIG PICTURE: Auto sales have slowed in Q1 for most of the industry, as elections, muted consumer spending, and the heatwave hurt growth. But sales of bigger cars + favorable macros are carrying the day. Future triggers to watch out for this year include Maruti's launch of a new EV vehicle! 

Here is its Q1 report card: 

  • Revenue: Rs 35331 cr, +10% YoY (vs Est: Rs 34565 cr)
  • EBITDA: Rs 4448 cr, +49% YoY (vs Est: Rs 3986 cr)
  • EBITDA Margin: 12.5% vs 9.2% last year 
  • PAT: Rs 3650 cr, +47% YoY (vs Est: Rs 3272) 
Maruti Suzuki is +29% YTD.

What's your view on Maruti Suzuki?

Bullish 📈

Bearish 📉

Neutral 〰

Please tell us by commenting 😊

Coal India's +3% Q1 results comfortably beat street estimates! A decline in employee costs helped the PSU miner deliver its highest-ever quarterly EBITDA and net profit! Meanwhile, volumes grew 6% YoY aided by strong power demand, due to the heatwave. 

Overall a solid picture. The only slightly sour note is that its 'offtake' or the amount of coal sold or committed to be sold rose + 5.5% YoY, lagging slightly behind a + 7.9% YoY growth in production. When demand is high, lower offtake usually signals logistical problems. 

Here is its Q1 report card: 

  • Revenue: Rs 36465 cr, +1% YoY (vs Est: Rs 36021 cr)
  • EBITDA: Rs 14339 cr, +6% YoY (vs Est: Rs 10173 cr)
  • EBITDA Margin: 39.3% vs 37.7% last year 
  • PAT: Rs 10944 cr, +4% YoY (vs Est: Rs 7654 cr) 
Maruti Suzuki is +42% YoY

Ceigall India IPO REVIEW 

Ceigall India IPO opened for subscription today! the price band is fixed at Rs 380-401 p/sh. The company aims to raise Rs 1253 cr.

Founded in 2002, Ceigall is an infrastructure company that focuses on roads, highways, flyovers, and tunnels. It got its first big order in 2006 and hasn't looked back since then. As of March 2024, it had constructed over 1740 km of roads and highways. The EPC ( engineering, procurement & construction) segments account for 66% of its topline, while another 26% is handled through a hybrid annuity model. Ceigall current order book is Rs 9471 cr, 3.1x its FY24 revenue, providing solid medium-term revenue visibility!

The IPO is mostly a fresh issue of shares ( Rs 684 cr) with the rest being done through the 'offer for sale' route (Rs 568 cr). The money raised will be used to repay debt and fund new equipment purchases. 

FY24 snapshot: 

  • Revenue: Rs 3029 cr, +46% YoY 
  • EBITDA: Rs 518 cr, +75% YoY 
  • EBITDA Margin: 17.09% vs 14.29% YoY
  • PAT: Rs 304 cr, +88% YoY 
BIG PICTURE: CEIGALL has been riding the GOI's big infra boom, with its topline growing at a 50% CAGR between FY21 and FY24. That said, receivables remain a problem, something that affects most construction firms. Also, while Ceigall has projects in 10 states, it's still heavily Punjab-focused, with over 50% of its topline coming from just one state. This could cap its future growth potential and also expose the potential political risks! The IPO pricing is on the slightly expensive side, but the current grey market data suggest it may list at a +20% premium! 

Are you applying for the IPO?

YES 

NO

Please tell us by commenting 😊

CHARTBUSTERS 

1) Adani Energy Solutions hit a 52-week-high after its $1 billion QIP was subscribed 3x! This is the first big public fundraiser since the Hindenburg scandal and was seen as a litmus test of sorts for the Adani group. The QIP saw participation from some marquee FIIs including the Qatar investment authority and US billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller's family office. 

Adani Energy Solutions stock chart
Adani Energy Solutions stock chart


2) KRBL cracked 8% intraday after its Q1 net profit more than HALVED YoY. Its topline and operating margins also saw a big hit. KRBL and other rice stocks have been hit hard by the GOI's export ban for almost a year now.

KRBL stock chart
KRBL stock chart 

3) Sonata Software slumped in its Q1 results disappointing investors. The firm's bottom line declined -4% QoQ, but both the topline and deal wins were decent! Overall numbers were in line with most estimates, but investors are expecting an IT revival right now. Anything less than that doesn't make the cut. 

Sonata Software stock chart
Sonata Software stock chart


NIFTY 25,011 0.2%
SENSEX 81,868 0.2%
BANK NIFTY 51,564 FLA

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